Tue. May 24th, 2022


Box Office Predictions, Sonic The Hedgehog 2, Ambulance, Morbius, Box office

It’s going to be another healthy spring weekend at the box office with Sonic The Hedgehog 2 ready to race ahead of the pack for a healthy number one finish.

Back in February 2020, Sonic The Hedgehog was released and it truly defied the odds. We’re talking about a video game adaptation that was met with harsh criticism when its first trailer was released because fans of the game did not dig Sonic’s look. The backlash was so strong that they went back and re-did his look in a bid to win over the fans. From there, the movie had to overcome the video game curse. Some adaptations can be successful but they’re typically met with atrocious reviews and they don’t always align with fan expectations.

Imagine the surprise of the industry when Sonic The Hedgehog sped into its opening weekend with an amazing $58 million over its first three days and $70 million over four (the film opened over the robust President’s Day weekend). Reviews were also decent with the film scoring a 63% fresh score on Rotten Tomatoes and an even more impressive 93% audience score. Fans fell in love with Sonic and it really was able to overcome initial bad buzz to deliver a fun film that the audience really wanted. By the end of its run, Sonic The Hedgehog grossed $148.9 million domestically and $319.7 million at the worldwide box office. There is an argument to be made that if the pandemic hadn’t handicapped the box office in March of 2020, Sonic could’ve soared even higher.

Now we have Sonic The Hedgehog 2 this weekend and Paramount Pictures is looking to continue a pretty early hot streak this year at the box office. The studio kicked off January with the success of Scream and that was followed a few weeks later with Jackass Forever. Just two weeks ago, The Lost City posted one of the better openings for comedy and a film geared at women during the pandemic and now they have Sonic 2 ready to continue their box office reign. The studio was smart here and kept all the creative players in play for the sequel. Director Jeff Fowler is back as well as screenwriters Pat Casey and John Miller. On the live-action front, Jim Carrey, James Marsden, and Tika Sumpter are also back but the real thrill for fans will be the arrival of some fan favorites from the game. Knuckles is making his debut and he’s voiced by Idris Elba while Tails is also joining the fun with the voice of Colleen O’Shaughnessey, who is an iconic voice talent from the video games. This is how you win over fans people. Take note.

All of this culminates in Sonic The Hedgehog 2 scoring big this weekend. Reviews are pretty much in line with the first film (67% fresh as of this writing) and young kids haven’t had much to themselves at the box office since Sing 2 in December. With Spring break also rolling out beginning this weekend, the movie is poised to at least equal the opening success of the first film. The sequel has also grossed $30 million from 31 overseas markets after opening last weekend and 22 more are gearing up in the days ahead. This weekend Sonic will add some domestic dollars to that tally and I predict we’re going to see a $55 million opening from Sonic The Hedgehog 2. I honestly also wouldn’t be surprised if it debuted a bit higher than this prediction.

In second place, we should see the debut of Michael Bay’s latest effort, Ambulance. This is Michael Bay on his more modest side as the film carries a $40 million budget and is more in line with his releases like Pain and Gain or 13 Hours rather than behemoths like the Transformers franchise. Starring Jake Gyllenhaal, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, and Eiza Gonzalez, the film’s trailer won me over and it looks like a pretty exciting action film that has been lacking at the box office lately. The headscratcher is, per Deadline, the movie is tracking insanely low at an $8-12 million start and I honestly think it’s going to exceed those expectations. As of this writing, Ambulance is matching Sonic The Hedgehog 2’s 67% fresh score on Rotten Tomatoes and that is something that often isn’t the case with Michael Bay’s movies. Solid reviews might entice those who were on the fence about the film. I think word of mouth could allow Ambulance to gross beyond its opening tracking and that’s why I’m predicting $15 million for the weekend.

Cratering in third place will likely be Morbius which has had to endure awful reviews and poor word of mouth since opening last weekend. The film’s $39.1 million opening last week was good for exhibition and moviegoing but it also showed that there was a gradual decline in its attendance throughout the weekend due to the bad word of mouth spreading quickly. Given its $17.2 million opening day on Friday, it should’ve opened well beyond $40 million and that was the first sign that the movie would be in trouble in its second weekend. I’m predicting a drop of more than 60% and a weekend two gross of $13 million.

Rounding out fourth and fifth place will be The Lost City and The Batman. Paramount Pictures will have two films in the five with Sonic and The Lost City which will be a fun thing for them to brag about on Monday. As for The Batman, we’re looking to see if there is enough gas in the tank to crack $400 million at the domestic box office. Currently, the film stands at $350.9 million so it will need to see more solid holds to get or it’s going to fall a tad short. That being said, I’m predicting a fourth-place finish for The Lost City with $9 million and a fifth-place finish for The Batman at $6.5 million.

What are YOUR predictions for this weekend’s box office?

TOP FIVE BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS:

  1. Sonic The Hedgehog 2 – $55 Million
  2. Ambulance – $15 million
  3. Morbius – $13 million
  4. The Lost City – $9 million
  5. The Batman – $6.5 million

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